Aniebietabasi Obo: articles https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/ Articles by Aniebietabasi Obo on credit risk, fixed income, quant research and software. en Fri, 06 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT Building a memecoin trading bot: what the data said, and what real money said https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/memecoin-trading-bot/ https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/memecoin-trading-bot/ Fri, 06 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT Recording every new token forward, pre-registering every rule, and a real-money post-mortem that blamed the safety stops, not the strategy. Quant Research Crypto Python Next.js Dangote Cement is a better business than a year ago. Its share price assumes Nigerian rates will fall https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/dangote-cement-valuation/ https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/dangote-cement-valuation/ Wed, 04 Nov 2026 00:00:00 GMT An equity research note on Dangote Cement built from NGX filings: a DCF puts fair value at ₦871 against ₦1,490, a price that implies naira bond yields of 12.6%. Equity research Valuation Nigeria Python A day-trading strategy lost for nine years, then worked. Could you have known? https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/opening-range-breakout-nasdaq/ https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/opening-range-breakout-nasdaq/ Thu, 29 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT A YouTube Nasdaq breakout strategy lost money from 2010 to 2018, then made $86,510 on sealed 2023–26 data. Neither regime filter would have told you when. Quant Research Backtesting Trading 161 trading hypotheses: what survived, and where my tests were wrong https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/161-trading-hypotheses/ https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/161-trading-hypotheses/ Wed, 28 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT A scoreboard of 161 pre-registered trading ideas, from chart patterns to risk premia. Lore never came close; textbook premia barely did better. Quant Research Backtesting Trading I built a bank-style credit model. The health check said it was fine while losses rose https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/credit-risk-model/ https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/credit-risk-model/ Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT I built a credit scorecard and a LightGBM PD model on 620,783 Lending Club loans and validated them like a bank: ranking held, but PSI missed the drift. Credit risk Python Machine learning Data Costs killed my day trading on stocks. On the indices, the pattern flipped https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/index-intraday-momentum/ https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/index-intraday-momentum/ Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT Day trading on stocks lost to costs, so I tested the best-known intraday pattern on stock indices at futures costs. It worked for a decade, then reversed. Quant Research Backtesting Trading My market-timing signals passed every test. Buy-and-hold nearly did too https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/regime-timers-vs-buy-and-hold/ https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/regime-timers-vs-buy-and-hold/ Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT Ten macro regime timers passed my backtest gauntlet; buy-and-hold failed only on a technicality. Out of sample, all ten made less than staying invested. Quant Research Backtesting Python I backtested Smart Money Concepts properly. Six rules, no edge https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/smart-money-concepts-backtest/ https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/smart-money-concepts-backtest/ Tue, 27 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT I coded six Smart Money Concepts (ICT) rules, from liquidity sweeps to order blocks, and backtested them on FX and gold back to 2005. None passed. Quant Research Backtesting Trading Fifty-six trading hypotheses: what systematic signal research actually looks like https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/fifty-six-trading-hypotheses/ https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/fifty-six-trading-hypotheses/ Sat, 24 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT A pre-registered five-gate backtest gauntlet, a one-shot holdout, and why passing every test still wasn't enough. Quant Research Backtesting Python Building a naira yield curve from public data, and what it says about MPC decisions https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/naira-yield-curve/ https://jurstadev.xyz/articles/naira-yield-curve/ Sat, 24 Oct 2026 00:00:00 GMT Naira and Eurobond yield curves built from FMDQ, DMO and CBN data. FGN bond yields now move before MPC rate decisions; in 2010–17, in the decision week. Fixed income Python Nigeria Data